Something’s Happening Here
1960s rock band Buffalo Springfield once sang, “Something’s happening here, what it is ain’t exactly clear.” Let me update those lyrics some 40 years and relate it to college football circa 2011. I’ve noted in previous blogs that ranked teams playing unranked opponents in the early part of the season (in particular), have few issues winning but more than just a little trouble with covering the pointspread. No. 3 LSU took care of unranked Mississippi State Thursday night (I use the AP poll, not the coaches’ rankings) by the score of 19-6, covering the modest 3 1/2-point spread. However, heading into Friday night’s game between No. 4 Boise St and Toledo (a game in which the Broncos are favored by about three TDs in), ranked teams are 37-4 (.902) SU when taking on unranked opponents but just 21-18-1 ATS (plus one suspended game with no official ATS result). That’s a winning percent of just 53.8 percent, or right around the ‘Mendoza line.’

Twenty ranked AP teams will be in action on Saturday vs. unranked opponents (you may have heard that there is a big game in Tallahassee as well, with No. 1 Oklahoma playing No. 5 Florida State) but what’s got Buffalo Springfield and myself ‘wondering’ is this. Of the previous 41 games between ranked and unranked foes, all but one ranked team entered the game as a favorite. That accounts for the high SU win percentage, but with the pointspread playing the role of ‘spoiler,’ the unprofitable ATS record. Note that the lone ranked team to be installed as an underdog was then-No. 21 Missouri which closed a 10-point underdog cover last Friday night at Arizona State. The Tigers would lose that game in overtime 37-30.

What we have this Saturday is something that raises some eyebrows and surely bears watching. Four ranked teams are underdogs in games versus unranked opponents (all lines as of 5:00 ET on Friday). No. 15 Michigan State is getting five points at Notre Dame, which is 0-2 to open the 2011 season and has lost 10 of its last 13 meetings with the Spartans. No. 17 Ohio State is getting 2 1/2-points at Miami-Florida and No. 22 Arizona State, which moved into the top-25 by beating but not covering against then-No. 21 Missouri last weekend, now finds that the “shoe is on the other foot,” as the ranked Aztecs are two-point underdogs at unranked Illinois. Finally, we have No. 21 Auburn, the defending national champs and owners of the nation’s longest active winning streak at 17 in a row, finding themselves 3 1/2-point underdogs at Clemson, a school it has beaten 14 consecutive times (Clemson last beat Auburn back in 1951, which is even pre-Buffalo Springfield).

If you are finding that “things ain’t exactly clear” this weekend in college football, I have just the place you can turn to. My VIP Club members are now a documented 11-3 on the season. Here is "The Proof".

Posted by Ken O'Brien on Sep 16, 2011 12:13:40 pm

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